When: Sunday, January 28, at 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
What to note: The key elements for success in the postseason often include having an outstanding quarterback and a formidable defense. This brings us to the Ravens, who are only the fourth team since the 1970 merger to boast a first-team All-Pro quarterback along with the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. The three previous teams achieving this feat—the 1972 Dolphins, 1978 Steelers, and 1996 Packers—all went on to win the Super Bowl.
These factors work in favor of the Ravens in the upcoming Sunday matchup. Lamar Jackson, their quarterback, is coming off a historic performance against the Texans with two rushing touchdowns and two touchdown passes, while the Ravens' defense held Houston to its second-lowest yardage total of the season (213). This suggests a well-rounded and formidable team.
However, don't anticipate the Chiefs being unsettled by any of this, having already conquered the Bills on the road in a memorable clash between the emerging rivals. Following the thrilling Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen showdown on Sunday, the AFC playoffs present another premier quarterback matchup in the championship game, featuring Mahomes and the Chiefs against Jackson and the Ravens.
The Chiefs hold a 3-2 record in AFC title games with Mahomes at the helm. This season, a crucial distinction exists: the Chiefs boast arguably the best defense in the Mahomes era, finishing second in both scoring defense and yards allowed. Throughout Mahomes' tenure, no Kansas City team has ranked higher than seventh in either metric. — Holder
Why the Ravens might emerge victorious: Baltimore is excelling on both sides of the ball. Beginning with the defense, the Ravens prevented the Texans from scoring any offensive touchdowns in the divisional round. Against Houston, Baltimore's defense, especially against the run, was dominant, allowing negative-0.29 EPA per play. This performance aligns with the Ravens' defense ranking first in EPA per play over the entire season, including the playoffs.
Despite the Chiefs' reputation, the reality of this matchup leans heavily in favor of Baltimore's superior defense over Kansas City's offense, which was ranked 10th in EPA per play entering Sunday.
On the offensive front, the Ravens continue their strong form. Lamar Jackson showcased a 94 QBR against Houston, and the Ravens accumulated 0.41 EPA per play on his run plays or dropbacks. In essence, every five of Jackson's plays contributed two full points to the Ravens' expected scoring margin. Although the Chiefs' defense will offer more resistance than Houston's, Kansas City ranked 11th in EPA per play allowed against opposing QB scrambles or runs. Furthermore, the Chiefs exhibit vulnerabilities against the run, ranking 26th in EPA per opponent-designed carry. This sets the stage for another potentially impactful performance by Jackson. — Walder
Why the Chiefs may secure the win: Mahomes remains at the helm with the support of the best defense he has ever had. With Andy Reid calling plays, a standout receiver in Rashee Rice, a protective offensive line, and a two-touchdown performance by tight end Travis Kelce in the divisional round, the Chiefs possess formidable strengths.
Despite the numerous challenges faced this season, such as the receivers' league-worst 5.7% drop rate and their struggle to support Mahomes and the offense at an elite level, the Chiefs still have the potential to score abundantly in the AFC Championship Game. Additionally, despite the Ravens leading the league in sacks during the regular season, Mahomes has demonstrated a reluctance to succumb to them, with his 3.9% sack rate and 13.8% sack-to-pressure rate ranking second in the NFL behind Allen.
Although Buffalo managed to move the ball with ease against the Chiefs at times, a broader perspective reveals that the defense remains one of the best in the league, securing the fourth position in EPA per play allowed. Ultimately, Kansas City successfully kept the Bills out of the end zone.
While the Chiefs may be considered underdogs, and rightfully so, they have recently defeated Baltimore's primary contender in the AFC, indicating their capability to triumph over the Ravens as well. — Walder
NFC Championship Game
When: Sunday, Jan. 28 at 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Opening line: SF -7 (51.5)
What to know: The 49ers have not secured a Super Bowl victory since 1994. To provide context, in that Super Bowl XXIX triumph over the Chargers, quarterback Steve Young delivered three touchdown passes to Jerry Rice. Nonetheless, the Niners are set to make their seventh appearance in the NFC Championship Game since 2011. Across those games, San Francisco has achieved a 2-4 record, with three of those appearances occurring under coach Kyle Shanahan since 2019. A victory against Detroit would allow Shanahan to surpass Bill Walsh for the best postseason win percentage in the club's history.
Paraphrase: Concerns arise regarding quarterback Brock Purdy's performance in the divisional round against the Packers, where he posted a negative-6% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. However, evaluating the 49ers with a broader perspective reveals a formidable team. Despite Purdy's struggles, the 49ers boast the most efficient passing offense in football. Considering the Lions' vulnerability in defending the pass, ranked 30th in EPA allowed per opposing dropback, San Francisco's array of offensive playmakers presents a significant challenge for Detroit. Although the Lions have an effective offense, it lacks the firepower of the 49ers.
Furthermore, the 49ers have defensive stars such as edge rusher Nick Bosa and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, leading a pass rush capable of pressuring the quarterback without relying heavily on blitzing. Cornerback Charvarius Ward and linebacker Fred Warner add defensive strength, potentially mitigating the impact of Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. -- Walder
Why the Lions will win: The Lions enter the NFC Championship Game with two significant advantages. Firstly, quarterback Brock Purdy's recent performance has been less than stellar, showcasing vulnerabilities until his game-winning drive against the Packers. While leading an ultra-efficient offense throughout the season, Purdy's potentially shaky demeanor provides hope for Detroit.
Secondly, the Lions can exploit the 49ers' vulnerability to the run. With a run-heavy approach, ranking 11th in run rate over expectation according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and efficient running from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions present a formidable ground game. Notably, the 49ers excel in defending deep throws, ranking third in EPA per play allowed on attempts of 20 or more air yards. However, this strength may not be as impactful against Detroit, which has the lowest deep throw rate in the NFL at 7%. While the Lions may need some fortunate bounces, they have a legitimate chance to succeed. -- Walder
Comments
Post a Comment