Predictions and Schedule for NFL Wild-Card Round Playoff Games

January 12, 2024

Predictions and Schedule for NFL Wild-Card Round Playoff Games

Explore the Exciting NFL Wild-Card Round: 2024 Schedule, Matchup Insights, and Predictions

Discover the thrilling matchups awaiting you in the 2024 NFL playoffs' wild-card round, accompanied by comprehensive insights to prepare you for the weekend. Our team of NFL Nation reporters delves into the critical aspects of each game, offering bold predictions for every matchup.

In addition, benefit from Thunder Wrestler Stats & Information delivering essential statistics and betting insights for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) provides in-depth game projections. Seth Walder, our analytics writer, identifies the pivotal X factor in each matchup, Matt Bowen highlights key game-planning battles, and Kevin Seifert sheds light on officiating details. To complete the package, Walder and Eric Moody share their final score predictions for each game. Everything you need for an action-packed weekend of NFL playoff football is compiled here for your convenience.

Dive into the entire wild-card slate, featuring noteworthy events like Matthew Stafford's return to Detroit and three exciting rematches of regular-season clashes (Browns-Texans, Eagles-Bucs, and Dolphins-Chiefs).

(5) Browns vs. (4) Texans

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: CLE -2 (44.5)

Key Points to Note: In their previous encounter, Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper set a team record with 265 receiving yards, contributing to Cleveland's 36-22 victory. The Texans were without their starting quarterback, C.J. Stroud, who was in concussion protocol, leading to Case Keenum stepping in and throwing two interceptions. With Stroud now healthy, the Texans are confident in their ability to compete against any team. Anticipate a different dynamic in this matchup. -- DJ Bien-Aime

Bold Projection: The Browns will secure the turnover advantage for just the third time this season. This playoff clash marks a historic scenario, featuring the team with the highest turnovers (Cleveland, 37) facing off against the team with the fewest (Houston, 14) since the 1970 merger. Cleveland has prioritized ball security in their preparations for this game, potentially giving them an edge in the matchup.

Key Statistic: Stroud's vulnerability lies in facing man coverage. Despite boasting the league's highest QBR against zone coverage (74), he ranks 27th against man coverage (39). His significant QBR drop of 35.1 from zone-to-man coverage this season is the most pronounced. In the upcoming game, Stroud will be up against a Browns defense that employs man coverage at the 10th-highest rate (47%) and holds the best man defense in the league.

Crucial Matchup Element: The X factor in the matchup revolves around Browns cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr., particularly when lining up against Nico Collins. Collins, an outstanding performer this season, ranks second in yards per route run, trailing only Tyreek Hill. The ability of the Browns' corners to effectively neutralize Collins on any given play could significantly limit Stroud's offensive options. Emerson and Ward, as proficient players, create a strength-on-strength confrontation that may play a decisive role in the outcome of the game. -- Walder

Game-Plan Strategy: A strategic focus for the Browns involves orchestrating deep shots for quarterback Joe Flacco. In their Week 16 encounter with Houston, Flacco completed five passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield. The key question is whether the Texans can contain the Browns' vertical passing game. Explore further details at ESPN+. -- Bowen

Injury Updates: Browns | Texans

Officiating Insight: This game features two of the NFL's most penalized teams. The Browns accumulated 138 flags, the second-highest in the league, while the Texans ranked fifth with 132 flags. Notably, Browns opponents were penalized 133 times, the highest in the league. However, it's worth noting that referee Clay Martin's regular-season crew threw the fourth-fewest flags in the league at an average of 12.4 per game. -- Seifert

Betting Insight: The Texans boast a 9-3 record against the spread (ATS) in their last 12 meetings with the Browns.

Predictions:

- Moody's Pick: Texans 24, Browns 21

- Walder's Pick: Texans 23, Browns 16

- FPI Prediction: CLE, 50.5% (with an average margin of 0.2 points)

(6) Dolphins vs. (3) Chiefs

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Peacock | Spread: KC -4.5 (43.5)

Key Aspects to Monitor: In their Week 9 encounter, the Chiefs effectively defended wide receiver Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins, primarily employing a zone coverage strategy at a season-high 61%. Despite holding Hill to 62 yards and causing a crucial fumble returned for a touchdown, repeating this performance presents a formidable challenge for Kansas City. The question remains whether they can replicate their success. -- Adam Teicher

Bold Projection: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is anticipated to throw two touchdowns without committing a turnover. The expected frigid conditions at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday night may pose a challenge, as Tagovailoa has faced criticism for his performance in sub-45-degree weather, losing all four starts and completing just 55% of his passes. However, he is predicted to overcome these obstacles and break out of his late-season struggles. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

Key Statistic: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes aims to extend his streak of multiple touchdown passes in postseason games to six, seeking to tie the third-longest streak in postseason history alongside Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, and Drew Brees.

Crucial Matchup Element: The X factor in the matchup centers around Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. With the absence of significant wide receiver reinforcements, Kelce becomes crucial as the Chiefs need a dominant receiving threat. If Kelce can rediscover his 2022 form, he stands as the most likely player on the roster to fulfill this role. -- Walder

Strategic Element: How can the Chiefs effectively limit Hill's impact? Incorporating various two-deep coverage strategies into the game plan is crucial to curtailing Miami's dynamic passing game. For further details, refer to ESPN+. -- Bowen

Injury Updates: Dolphins | Chiefs

Officiating Insight: The Chiefs led the league in offensive holding penalties (33), contributing significantly to their overall ranking of No. 6 in penalties (126). This aspect of the game would have garnered more attention if the Dolphins hadn't faced a string of injuries to their top pass-rushers. Nevertheless, it's worth highlighting that referee Brad Rogers' regular-season crew issued the second-highest number of flags for offensive holding (48). -- Seifert

Betting Insight: During the regular season, the Dolphins posted a 10-7 record against the spread (ATS), with overs going 9-8. The Chiefs, on the other hand, recorded a 9-8 ATS mark, with under prevailing at 11-6.

Predictions:

Moody's Pick: Dolphins 27, Chiefs 21

Walder's Pick: Dolphins 27, Chiefs 23

FPI Prediction: KC, 52.6% (with an average margin of 0.9 points)

(7) Steelers vs. (2) Bills

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -10 (35.5)

Key Points of Interest: The paths that led the Bills and Steelers to this matchup share an uncanny number of similarities, involving the challenges of coping with key player injuries, midseason offensive coordinator changes, and concluding with winning streaks despite low playoff probabilities. Notably, both teams dismissed their offensive coordinators during the season, marking the first playoff teams to undergo in-season coordinator changes since the 2012 Ravens. While the Steelers aim for their first playoff win since 2016, the Bills boast a formidable 13-2 record in home playoff games since 1970. The task of containing quarterback Josh Allen in the postseason presents a significant challenge for Pittsburgh, given Allen's unique playoff history as the only player to average 250 passing yards and 50 rushing yards per game (min. five games), with the highest combined average yardage at 343.9. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Bold Projection: Steelers running back Najee Harris is predicted to achieve his third consecutive game with at least 100 rushing yards. Despite facing the Bills' robust rushing defense, which allowed an average of 103 rushing yards per game in their last three contests, Harris is in peak form with back-to-back games of 100-plus rushing yards. With below-freezing temperatures, wind gusts of 50 miles per hour, and potential light snow, the Steelers are expected to heavily rely on their ground game. Harris, alongside Jaylen Warren in the backfield, had only 255 touches in the regular season, the fewest in his three-year NFL career, ensuring freshness for the playoffs. -- Brooke Pryor

Key Statistic: During the regular season, the Steelers secured nine wins in one-score games, leading the NFL and establishing a franchise record for the most in a single season.

Crucial Matchup Element: The X factor in the matchup centers around Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins. With edge rusher T.J. Watt sidelined, Alex Highsmith becomes even more critical to the Steelers' pass rush. If Dawkins, who had an impressive season and ranked fourth in pass block win rate among tackles, can effectively neutralize Highsmith, it could pave the way for a smooth day for quarterback Josh Allen. -- Walder

Strategic Focus: Pittsburgh's game plan hinges on running the ball effectively between the tackles. The combination of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren finished the regular season on a strong note, and the Bills' vulnerability on inside runs, allowing 4.6 yards per carry (30th in the NFL), makes this a key aspect for the Steelers. For additional insights, refer to ESPN+. -- Bowen

Injury Updates: Steelers | Bills

Officiating Insight: This game benefits from the expertise of referee Carl Cheffers, a highly trusted official who has served as the Super Bowl referee in two of the past three years and three times in the past seven. Notably, his regular-season crew issued the third-fewest flags in the league (12.1 per game). -- Seifert

Betting Insight: In the regular season, the Steelers posted a 10-7 record against the spread (ATS), with under prevailing at 11-6. On the other hand, the Bills recorded a 7-10 ATS mark, with under also prevailing at 11-6.

Predictions:

- Moody's Pick: Bills 34, Steelers 20

- Walder's Pick: Bills 30, Steelers 13

- FPI Prediction: BUF, 76.6% (with an average margin of 10.4 points)

(7) Packers vs. (2) Cowboys

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DAL -7 (50.5)

Key Aspects to Monitor: Playoff matchups between the Cowboys and Packers have been etched into NFL history, spanning from the iconic Ice Bowl in 1967 to more recent memorable moments like the controversial Dez Bryant catch in the 2014 divisional round and Aaron Rodgers' game-changing 35-yard completion in the 2016 divisional round. Notably, this game marks quarterback Jordan Love's first playoff start, echoing a parallel from the past when Dak Prescott made his playoff debut in 2016. Dallas coach Mike McCarthy, previously on the Packers' sideline for those pivotal games, now has an opportunity to end his former team's season and advance to the divisional round for the second consecutive season. -- Todd Archer

Bold Projection: In a clash featuring the top two quarterbacks in the NFL for touchdown passes this season (Prescott with 36, Love with 32), both Packers running back Aaron Jones and Cowboys running back Tony Pollard are predicted to exceed 100 rushing yards. Jones capped the season with three consecutive games surpassing the 100-yard mark, while Pollard, boasting back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, faces a Green Bay defense that allowed an unfavorable 128.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 28th this season. -- Rob Demovsky

Key Statistic: The Packers maintain a perfect 5-0 record at AT&T Stadium, including playoffs (4-0 against the Cowboys and a Super Bowl XLV triumph against the Steelers).

Crucial Matchup Element: Jordan Love stands as the X factor in this matchup. While on paper, the advantage appears to favor Dallas, the post-Week 10 QBR rankings reveal Prescott and Love as the top quarterbacks, respectively. If Love delivers an exceptional performance, the Packers could pose a genuine threat. -- Walder

Strategic Focus: A notable aspect to watch is Dallas' ability to design interior pass-rushing plays for Micah Parsons. Leading the NFL in pass rush win rate this season at 35.4%, Parsons presents a significant threat, especially when deployed inside. Further details are available at ESPN+. -- Bowen

Injury Updates: Packers | Cowboys

Officiating Insight: The Cowboys have excelled this season in inducing coverage penalties from opponents, drawing an NFL-high 31 flags for defensive pass interference, defensive holding, or illegal contact. This prowess has contributed significantly to the Cowboys leading the league with 43 first downs obtained via penalties. In contrast, the Packers' shell coverage has been flagged only 16 times for coverage fouls, ranking seventh fewest in the NFL. -- Seifert

Betting Insight: During the regular season, the Packers achieved a 10-7 record against the spread (ATS), with overs prevailing at 10-7. Similarly, the Cowboys secured a 10-7 ATS mark, with under prevailing at 9-8.

Predictions:

- Moody's Pick: Cowboys 34, Packers 21

- Walder's Pick: Cowboys 31, Packers 24

- FPI Prediction: DAL, 73.6% (with an average margin of 9.1 points)

(6) Rams at (3) Lions

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: DET -3 (51.5)

Key Elements to Monitor: A spotlight on the matchup between Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff is inevitable. This game marks the Lions' first home playoff appearance since the 1993 season, with the two former No. 1 overall pick quarterbacks crossing paths for the second time since their trade in 2021. The narrative is charged with anticipation as Lions coach Dan Campbell endeavors to guide Detroit to its first postseason victory since the 1991 season, while Rams coach Sean McVay seeks to enhance his impressive 7-3 career record in playoff games. -- Eric Woodyard

Bold Projection: Stafford is forecasted to throw for a minimum of 350 yards. Although he hasn't reached this mark yet in the current season, the matchup suggests a potentially high-scoring affair. Stafford, who spent 12 seasons with the Lions, boasts a career average of 277.7 passing yards per game at Ford Field, ranking as the fourth-highest by any quarterback at a single stadium in NFL history, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. -- Sarah Barshop

Key Statistic: The Lions aggressively went for it on fourth down 34% of the time this season, marking the highest rate by any team this century. In contrast, the Rams pursued fourth-down attempts 17% of the time, ranking 20th this season. However, considering the Rams' struggles with 16 missed field goals and extra points this season, the most since the 2001 Steelers (17), they might contemplate a more assertive approach on fourth downs.

Crucial Matchup Element: Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson emerges as a significant X factor. Concluding the regular season with 5.0 sacks, a forced fumble, and a notable 19% pass rush win rate at the edge in his final two games, Hutchinson's performance could play a pivotal role for the Lions' defense. -- Walder

Strategic Focus: Lions running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are expected to play a substantial role on Sunday night, particularly out of 11 personnel. The Rams exhibited vulnerability, allowing 4.9 yards per carry against such alignments this season. Additional insights are available at ESPN+. -- Bowen

Injury Updates: Rams | Lions

Officiating Insight: The Lions' challenge in defending the Rams' passing game is heightened by their tendency to commit coverage penalties. They were flagged 29 times for defensive pass interference, defensive holding, or illegal contact, ranking fifth most in the NFL. Additionally, they accrued six flags for roughing the passer, tying for the fourth most. Referee Craig Wrolstad, who threw four flags for roughing the passer during the regular season, tied for the sixth-fewest in this category. -- Seifert

Betting Insight: In the regular season, the Rams secured a 10-7 record against the spread (ATS), with overs prevailing at 9-8. Meanwhile, the Lions boasted a 12-5 ATS record, the best in the NFL, with overs also going 11-6, tying for the highest over percentage in the league.

Predictions:

- Moody's Pick: Rams 28, Lions 24

- Walder's Pick: Lions 24, Rams 20

- FPI Prediction: DET, 53.9% (with an average margin of 1.4 points)

(5) Eagles vs. (4) Buccaneers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | Spread: PHI -3 (43.5)

Key Aspects to Monitor: This matchup marks a rematch from Week 3, a game predicted accurately by Bucs inside linebacker Devin White after the Bucs' 25-11 home loss on "Monday Night Football." However, since then, the two teams have taken divergent paths, with the Bucs winning five of their past six games and the Eagles losing five of their past six. Notably, the Bucs will face a transformed defense under senior assistant Matt Patricia, who took over in Week 15. Both quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield for the Bucs and Jalen Hurts for the Eagles, are contending with injuries — Mayfield with rib and ankle injuries, and Hurts with a finger injury on his throwing hand sustained in Week 18. -- Jenna Laine

Bold Projection: A bold prediction envisions Bucs running back Rachaad White surpassing 125 all-purpose yards. In the previous meeting, the Eagles limited Tampa Bay to 41 rushing yards, but their run defense has struggled since then, allowing an average of 142 yards per game over the past seven games. With Mayfield dealing with injuries, White could play a pivotal role in both the ground and short passing game. -- Tim McManus

Key Statistic: Hurts has encountered challenges with ball security against the blitz this season, registering five touchdown passes but also eight interceptions. These eight turnovers represent the highest by any quarterback when facing blitzes this season. In this game, Hurts will contend with a Tampa Bay defense that blitzed at the third-highest rate during the regular season.

Crucial Matchup Element: The status of Hurts' finger emerges as a significant X factor. Hurts mentioned on Thursday that he hadn't thrown a ball since injuring his finger in Week 18. If the finger injury impairs his ability to throw the ball on Monday night, it could significantly alter the dynamics of the game. -- Walder

Strategic Focus: A crucial element in the game plan revolves around Philadelphia's ability to establish the run game with D'Andre Swift. Notably, Swift achieved 130 rushing yards against Tampa Bay in Week 3, and incorporating him into the run game could be instrumental in allowing the Eagles to find their offensive rhythm. For more detailed insights, refer to ESPN+. -- Bowen

Injury Updates: Eagles | Buccaneers

Officiating Insight: Despite the public discourse surrounding the Eagles and their offensive linemen potentially lining up offsides on "tush push" plays, a more significant aspect is that their offensive line received the fewest flags in the NFL, with just eight instances of offensive holding. In contrast, the Buccaneers' defensive front faced 22 such flags, ranking tied for the 16th most. -- Seifert

Betting Insight: In the regular season, the Eagles recorded a 7-10 record against the spread (ATS), with overs prevailing at 9-8. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers secured an 11-6 ATS mark, with under also prevailing at 11-6.

Predictions:

- Moody's Pick: Buccaneers 28, Eagles 21

- Walder's Pick: Eagles 21, Buccaneers 16

- FPI Prediction: PHI, 57.3% (with an average margin of 2.6 points)

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