As Tehran faces pressure from hardliners advocating retaliation, the move by Iran to withdraw high-ranking officers is motivated, in part, by its reluctance to become directly entangled in the escalating conflict across the Middle East.
The Revolutionary Guards of Iran have reduced the deployment of their high-ranking officers in Syria in response to a series of lethal Israeli attacks. Instead, they plan to depend more on allied Shiite militias to maintain their influence in the region, according to five sources familiar with the situation. The Guards have faced significant challenges in Syria, marked by Israeli strikes that have resulted in the death of several members, including a top intelligence general. The decision to withdraw senior officers is, in part, a response to Tehran's reluctance to be directly drawn into the escalating conflict in the Middle East, driven by the demands of hardliners seeking retaliation.
Iran has no plans to withdraw from Syria, which is a crucial part of Tehran's sphere of influence. However, the decision to reduce the deployment of senior officers reflects the evolving consequences of the conflict triggered by the October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. Despite supporting groups engaged in the conflict from Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria as part of the "Axis of Resistance," Iran has aimed to avoid direct involvement in the ongoing hostilities.
In response to a series of deadly Israeli strikes, Iran's Revolutionary Guards have reportedly reduced the deployment of senior officers in Syria, opting for a more indirect approach through allied Shi'ite militias. While the exact number of Iranians leaving Syria remains unclear, sources suggest it is a downsizing of their presence. Despite these adjustments, Iran is not abandoning Syria, and the Revolutionary Guards are expected to manage operations remotely with support from Hezbollah. The move is seen as an effort to avoid direct entanglement in the Israel-Gaza conflict, where Israel has intensified airstrikes targeting Iranian presence in Syria.
In an assault on January 20, five Revolutionary Guards members, including a general overseeing intelligence for the Quds Force, were reportedly killed. The attack, which targeted a building in Damascus, was responsible for the casualties, as reported by Iranian state media.
In another incident on December 25 outside Damascus, a senior Revolutionary Guards adviser responsible for coordinating between Syria and Iran was killed. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, led prayers at his funeral. Six sources familiar with Iranian deployments in Syria, who spoke to Reuters for this report, requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject. Three of these sources indicated that the Guards expressed concerns to Syrian authorities about leaks from within the Syrian security forces contributing to the recent lethal strikes. Another source familiar with Iranian operations in Syria mentioned that the precise Israeli strikes prompted the Guards to relocate operational sites and officers' residences due to fears of an "intelligence breach."
Iranian forces entered Syria at the invitation of President Bashar al-Assad to assist in repelling rebels who had seized control of significant portions of the country during the conflict that began in 2011. Despite the recovery of most of Syria by Assad and his allies, Iran-backed groups continue to operate across large areas, solidifying a zone of Iranian influence from Iraq, through Syria and Lebanon to the Mediterranean. This presence serves to counterbalance Tehran's regional adversaries, including Israel.
While the failure to protect Iranian commanders has reportedly undermined Iran's position, analysts suggest that Tehran is unlikely to end its commitment to Syria to preserve its role in the region. Russia, which has also supported Assad, deploying its air force to Syria in 2015, could benefit from any weakening of Iran's role in the country. The relationship between Moscow and Tehran may be strained if they openly compete in Syria, even though they have been working more closely together. This month, Russia expressed expectations that Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ebrahim Raisi would sign a new treaty soon, highlighting the strengthening political, trade, and military ties between the two nations.
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