The Michigan primary serves as a challenge for Biden, with crucial voters distancing themselves due to the conflict in Gaza.

February 28, 2024

The Michigan primary serves as a challenge for Biden, with crucial voters distancing themselves due to the conflict in Gaza.

Anti-war activists are pressuring Biden to distance himself from their campaign, while Trump grapples with a factional dispute involving local leaders.

Michigan polls started closing on Tuesday in a presidential primary, putting to the test the level of concern for Joe Biden and Donald Trump regarding their ability to secure crucial voter groups in the swing state for the general election.

Even though both candidates were poised for victory in their races, Biden and Trump encountered difficulties within their parties. Trump's campaign in Michigan faced challenges stemming from a factional dispute among local leaders within the state Republican party, exacerbated by underperformance in polls and difficulties with suburban and college-educated Republican voters in previous primaries. Meanwhile, Biden grappled with a campaign by anti-war activists urging him to distance himself, prompted by the president's ongoing support for Israel's military operations in Gaza.

In an interview with The Guardian, Layla Elabed, the sister of congresswoman Rashida Tlaib and campaign director for Listen to Michigan, expressed the organizers' hope for a turnout of 10,000 to 15,000 "uncommitted" votes, aiming to mirror the margin by which Hillary Clinton lost Michigan to Donald Trump in 2016. By 8:30 pm, they had surpassed 14,000 "uncommitted" votes, according to an Associated Press tally, which could serve as a significant rebuke to Biden.

As Tuesday evening progressed, a continuous flow of voters headed to polling stations in Dearborn, where the "uncommitted" campaign focused many of its resources on election day. Volunteers distributed campaign literature at intersections and outside the McDonald elementary school doors, but a considerable number of voters arriving had already decided to cast an "uncommitted" ballot.

Khalifah Mahdi, a 41-year-old local business owner voting for the first time in a primary election, stated, "This is to send a message to the president. He has lost a lot of strength and respect in this first term, and he needs to win that back."

Maria Ibarra, a volunteer with the Listen to Michigan campaign, mentioned that one Dearborn precinct had run out of voter-registration applications around 7 pm Eastern Standard Time. Those waiting in line, Ibarra noted, "want to make sure that there’s a clear message, that they want a permanent ceasefire." By 8 pm, the precinct had obtained more applications.

The momentum behind Democratic voters choosing to vote "uncommitted" in today's primary has increased since its launch in early February, gaining support from numerous local elected officials in greater Detroit. This initiative is endorsed by Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, whose Detroit suburb boasts the highest percentage of Arab Americans in any U.S. city. In a February op-ed for the New York Times, Hammoud expressed that his constituents, deeply affected by the Gaza situation, felt a "visceral sense of betrayal" due to Biden's backing of Israel.

The campaign also enjoys support from Representative Tlaib, a Palestinian American representing Dearborn in Congress. Tlaib proudly announced on social media that she voted "uncommitted" in the Democratic primary, emphasizing that President Biden is not adequately addressing their concerns, citing a poll indicating that about 74% of Michigan Democrats support a Gaza ceasefire. Tlaib sees this as a democratic way for Michigan to voice its concerns.

Former Congressman Andy Levin, who is Jewish and has ties to organized labor in the state, and former 2020 presidential candidate Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas also back the campaign. Layla Elabed, who voted for Biden in 2020, stressed the potential impact of accumulating enough "uncommitted" votes, aiming to convey a powerful message to Biden about the risk of losing Michigan in the general election.

On Tuesday evening, the Listen to Michigan campaign expressed confidence in winning at least one delegate at the Democratic National Convention, as delegates can be awarded to candidates earning at least 15% of the vote in a congressional district. Looking at recent history provides some comparisons for the ongoing "uncommitted" push in Michigan.

In 2008, a campaign resembling the current one emerged in Michigan due to frustration over Barack Obama's absence from the Democratic primary ballot. Almost 40% of voters opted for the "uncommitted" option. In 2012, when Obama, the incumbent Democrat, participated in the Michigan primary, over 10% of voters chose the "uncommitted" option.

On the Republican front, Trump was anticipated to secure a comfortable victory over former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. However, vulnerabilities within his coalition, observed in earlier primaries in South Carolina and New Hampshire, might resurface in this critical swing state.

Potential challenges for Trump could manifest if he encounters difficulties in Kent County in western Michigan, a former Republican stronghold that shifted to Biden in 2020, and in Oakland County, a more affluent suburban area of Detroit where voters have turned away from Trump. Haley, during her campaign stops in these locations leading up to the primary, argued that Trump, who won the South Carolina primary with 60% against Haley's 40%, would struggle to gain support from these voters.

Haley asserted to a Michigan audience over the weekend, "He's not gonna get the 40% if he's going and calling out my supporters and saying they're barred permanently from Maga. And why should the 40% have to cave to him?"

It's important to note that the outcome of Tuesday's vote is not conclusive. Due to compliance with national party rules regarding primary timing, the Michigan GOP will only allocate 30% of its delegates to the national convention based on Tuesday's vote, with the remainder to be awarded at a Saturday convention. Although the convention has been embroiled in a chaotic power struggle over the legitimate Michigan GOP chair, the delegates are anticipated to strongly favor Trump.

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