Forecast for Villanova vs. Marquette: Predictions for the Big East Tournament, along with favored odds and top betting recommendations.

March 14, 2024

Forecast for Villanova vs. Marquette: Predictions for the Big East Tournament, along with favored odds and top betting recommendations.

In a Big East Tournament quarterfinal showdown at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night, Marquette will face off against Villanova, two teams with a deep understanding of each other's style of play.

Opting against supporting the nation's 10th-ranked team and the tournament's third seed may appear unexpected without context. However, several factors contribute to the complexity of this game.

In this preview for the Villanova vs. Marquette matchup, I'll outline some of the significant variables and seek to identify a betting advantage.

Anticipating the clash between Villanova and Marquette, slated for 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time, attention is drawn to the absence of Marquette's star point guard, Tyler Kolek, who continues to recover from an oblique injury and is listed as day-to-day.

Kolek notably thrived in both encounters against Villanova during the regular season, particularly shining with a stellar 32-point display in a late January matchup. His remarkable offensive output aside, Kolek's defensive prowess and integral role in Marquette's game plans make his absence keenly felt on both ends of the court.

A standout in facilitating plays, Kolek currently ranks fourth in the nation in assist rate, as per KenPom metrics. While Marquette can rely on Kam Jones as a primary scoring option, Kolek's absence leaves a significant void in the team's tactical approach, potentially impacting the game's spread by several points. Thus, his sidelined status may well play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of this highly anticipated matchup.

He played a significant role in Marquette's victories over Villanova this season, contributing an average of 26.5 points, 10.0 assists, and 5.5 rebounds across the two matchups. However, it's worth noting that there were some exceptional offensive displays in both of Marquette's wins, which deviated from the norm.

In the first game, Marquette delivered an outstanding performance, showcasing a remarkable season-best shooting accuracy of 75% from 2-point range. This exceptional display of efficiency contributed significantly to their success on the court. In the subsequent matchup, the Eagles continued to impress by achieving their highest free-throw rate of the season, converting 21 out of 29 attempts from the charity stripe.

What makes these achievements even more noteworthy is the formidable defensive reputation of Villanova. The Wildcats are renowned for their defensive prowess, particularly in terms of limiting opponents' free-throw opportunities and minimizing fouls. Therefore, Marquette's ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, both from inside the paint and at the free-throw line, against such a disciplined defensive opponent underscores the magnitude of their performance.

Reaching the free-throw line 29 times in a single game against Villanova is a testament to Marquette's offensive proficiency and resilience. It signifies their adeptness at creating scoring opportunities and capitalizing on them effectively. These exceptional feats against a formidable opponent like Villanova further highlight Marquette's capability to rise to the occasion and execute their game plan with precision and determination.

Villanova is coming off a back-to-back, narrowly avoiding what could have been a devastating loss to DePaul on Wednesday. However, boasting the 14th-ranked defensive efficiency according to KenPom, the Wildcats present a formidable challenge for a Kolek-less Eagles team, especially on a neutral court.

In terms of offense, Villanova heavily relies on shooting 3-pointers, ranking 13th nationally in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt. Marquette's defensive approach is unlikely to disrupt Villanova's perimeter game, as the Golden Eagles rank among the bottom 20 teams in the country in conceding 3-point attempts per field goal attempt. This setup should allow Villanova to operate comfortably on the offensive end.

Nevertheless, Villanova will need to convert their 3-point attempts effectively to capitalize on this advantage.

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